V-Lab
ICE BofA Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
1.97%
decreased by 0.04%
1 Week
2.03%
increased by 0.02%
1 Month
2.25%
increased by 0.24%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 02:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1999 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 116% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 66 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0848 | 25.64*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7726 | 136.70*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0980 | 16.36*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0043 | 1.41 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.8795 | 1.58 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.906
Half-life:
7 days
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