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ICE BofA Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026

1 Day

2.31%

increased by 0.07%

1 Week

2.36%

increased by 0.12%

1 Month

2.55%

increased by 0.31%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 02:31 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/22/2024

to

10/22/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ICE BofA Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1999 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 117% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 117% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow66
αARCH0.0841
4.96***
βGARCH0.7734
35.90***
γleverage0.0981
4.53***
λ₁tau intercept0.0044
3.11***
λ₂forecast adj.0.8785
12.31***
λ₃tau persistence0.0000
0.00

0.907

Persistence

7d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

66
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0841
4.96***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7734
35.90***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0981
4.53***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0044
3.11***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.8785
12.31***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.907

Half-life:

7 days