Kafr El-Zayat Pesticides & Chemicals Co MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
33.29%
1 Week
35.14%
1 Month
37.48%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:27 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 14, 1996 to Jul 9, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 57% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 76 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2803 | 25.47*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3825 | 24.13*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1014 | -5.59*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 2.6964 | 1.52 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.7329 | 6.28*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.612
Half-life:
1 days
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