Kafr El-Zayat Pesticides & Chemicals Co APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
37.29%
1 Week
41.03%
1 Month
49.12%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:27 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 14, 1996 to Jul 9, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 37% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets. The volatility power δ = 1.77 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8231 | 9.34*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2082 | 26.51*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7240 | 69.53*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0897 | -4.94*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.7680 | 21.07*** |
Persistence:
0.918
Half-life:
8 days
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