Kafr El-Zayat Pesticides & Chemicals Co Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
30.57%
increased by 4.93%
1 Week
31.88%
increased by 6.24%
1 Month
33.06%
increased by 7.42%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:27 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 14, 1996 to Jul 9, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.2176 | 3.79*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2439 | 5.79*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4695 | 7.94*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.3899 | 1.97** |
| γ2 | -0.5650 | -1.81* |
| γ3 | 0.4144 | 2.09** |
| γ4 | -0.5062 | -3.71*** |
| γ5 | 0.3244 | 2.87*** |
| γ6 | 0.0693 | 0.72 |
| γ7 | -0.2087 | -2.44** |
| γ8 | 0.1258 | 1.18 |
| γ9 | -0.1486 | -1.11 |
| γ10 | 0.1793 | 1.73* |
Persistence:
0.713
Half-life:
2 days
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