V-Lab
Kafr El-Zayat Pesticides & Chemicals Co Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 27th, 2026
1 Day
54.02%
decreased by 18.49%
1 Week
46.45%
decreased by 26.06%
1 Month
36.93%
decreased by 35.58%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 07:59 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 14, 1996 to Aug 25, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.2124 | 3.74*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2421 | 5.86*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4999 | 8.70*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.3721 | 1.88* |
| γ2 | -0.5356 | -1.72* |
| γ3 | 0.3908 | 1.97** |
| γ4 | -0.4889 | -3.56*** |
| γ5 | 0.3264 | 2.84*** |
| γ6 | 0.0542 | 0.55 |
| γ7 | -0.2008 | -2.38** |
| γ8 | 0.1249 | 1.24 |
| γ9 | -0.1439 | -1.11 |
| γ10 | 0.1739 | 1.67* |
Persistence:
0.742
Half-life:
2 days
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