Kafr El-Zayat Pesticides & Chemicals Co Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
28.30%
increased by 5.48%
1 Week
28.83%
increased by 6.01%
1 Month
29.31%
increased by 6.49%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:27 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 14, 1996 to Jul 9, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.3311 | 3.92*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2451 | 5.70*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4621 | 7.67*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.4303 | 2.16** |
| γ2 | -0.6284 | -2.01** |
| γ3 | 0.4562 | 2.33** |
| γ4 | -0.5381 | -4.00*** |
| γ5 | 0.3430 | 3.07*** |
| γ6 | 0.0631 | 0.66 |
| γ7 | -0.2081 | -2.39** |
| γ8 | 0.1217 | 1.06 |
| γ9 | -0.1270 | -0.78 |
| γ10 | 0.1032 | 0.50 |
Persistence:
0.707
Half-life:
2 days
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