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V-Lab

Iris Metals Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026

1 Day

83.88%

decreased by 10.91%

1 Week

123.97%

increased by 29.18%

1 Month

219.65%

increased by 124.86%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 05:51 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Iris Metals Ltd S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 23, 2021 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 336 trading days (~1.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.2176
0.24
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.6812
4.82***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.3167
13.59***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ1221.8643
1.26
γ2-456.7170
-2.43**
γ3495.5672
17.66***
γ4-443.3599
-10.80***
γ5265.2277
4.98***
γ6-115.5568
-2.96***
γ739.2416
2.65***
γ8-9.2490
-1.77*
γ94.0164
1.57

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

336 days