Iris Metals Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
83.88%
decreased by 10.91%
1 Week
123.97%
increased by 29.18%
1 Month
219.65%
increased by 124.86%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 05:51 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 23, 2021 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 336 trading days (~1.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2176 | 0.24 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.6812 | 4.82*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3167 | 13.59*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 221.8643 | 1.26 |
| γ2 | -456.7170 | -2.43** |
| γ3 | 495.5672 | 17.66*** |
| γ4 | -443.3599 | -10.80*** |
| γ5 | 265.2277 | 4.98*** |
| γ6 | -115.5568 | -2.96*** |
| γ7 | 39.2416 | 2.65*** |
| γ8 | -9.2490 | -1.77* |
| γ9 | 4.0164 | 1.57 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
336 days
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