Iris Metals Ltd APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
99.74%
decreased by 0.39%
1 Week
102.97%
increased by 2.84%
1 Month
111.56%
increased by 11.43%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 18, 2026 at 08:50 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 23, 2021 to Jul 17, 2026Illiquid Asset
Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 11 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 11 days. The volatility power δ = 1.26 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8653 | 3.36*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1116 | 12.10*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8448 | 54.96*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0696 | -1.82* |
δ power Transformation power | 1.2614 | 11.14*** |
Persistence:
0.937
Half-life:
11 days
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