Iris Metals Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
2,590.87%
increased by 834.27%
1 Week
2,588.28%
increased by 831.68%
1 Month
2,577.97%
increased by 821.37%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 18, 2026 at 08:51 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 23, 2021 to Jul 17, 2026Illiquid Asset
Extended Optimization
Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
The estimated Student-t degrees of freedom v = 2.00 sit at the infinite-variance boundary (v → 2): the model is attributing extreme moves to heavy tails rather than to volatility, so the volatility scale is unreliable here. See the boundary-parameters flag.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0003 | 10.31*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2747 | 635.82*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9990 | |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.0002 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
693 days
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