Iris Metals Ltd Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
101.06%
increased by 5.21%
1 Week
132.49%
increased by 36.64%
1 Month
216.60%
increased by 120.75%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 05:58 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 23, 2021 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 231049 trading days (~916.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1256 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.7085 | |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.2915 |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 37.8928 | |
| γ2 | -212.2082 | |
| γ3 | 466.5922 | |
| γ4 | -522.7751 | |
| γ5 | 348.3440 | |
| γ6 | -166.9778 | |
| γ7 | 58.0491 | |
| γ8 | -13.6009 | |
| γ9 | 5.9951 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
231049 days
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