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V-Lab

Iris Metals Ltd Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026

1 Day

101.06%

increased by 5.21%

1 Week

132.49%

increased by 36.64%

1 Month

216.60%

increased by 120.75%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 05:58 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Iris Metals Ltd SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 23, 2021 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 231049 trading days (~916.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.1256
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.7085
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.2915
γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ137.8928
γ2-212.2082
γ3466.5922
γ4-522.7751
γ5348.3440
γ6-166.9778
γ758.0491
γ8-13.6009
γ95.9951

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

231049 days