Iris Metals Ltd AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026
1 Day
113.80%
decreased by 9.22%
1 Week
114.50%
decreased by 8.52%
1 Month
116.33%
decreased by 6.69%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 06:08 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 23, 2021 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.81) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.6852 | 5.94*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1404 | 14.79*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7927 | 66.90*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.8104 | 2.92*** |
Persistence:
0.933
Half-life:
10 days
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