Iris Metals Ltd MEM Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026
1 Day
100.75%
decreased by 3.65%
1 Week
102.31%
decreased by 2.09%
1 Month
108.31%
increased by 3.91%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 06:08 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 23, 2021 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 9120 trading days (~36.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
MEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6306 | 3.70*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1615 | 13.83*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8384 | 113.43*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
9120 days
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