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V-Lab

Iris Metals Ltd MEM Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026

1 Day

100.75%

decreased by 3.65%

1 Week

102.31%

decreased by 2.09%

1 Month

108.31%

increased by 3.91%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 06:08 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Iris Metals Ltd MEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 23, 2021 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 9120 trading days (~36.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

MEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.6306
3.70***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1615
13.83***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8384
113.43***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

9120 days