V-Lab
Goldcrest Co Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
27.91%
increased by 0.51%
1 Week
29.96%
increased by 2.56%
1 Month
32.73%
increased by 5.33%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 28, 2026 at 07:51 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 14, 1998 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 19% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 76 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1336 | 20.37*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5575 | 44.24*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0250 | 2.31** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.2550 | 0.96 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.2847 | 2.93*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.6805 | 5.06*** |
Persistence:
0.704
Half-life:
2 days
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