V-Lab
Goldcrest Co Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
23.08%
1 Week
23.70%
1 Month
25.92%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 12:10 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 14, 1998 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 89 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 52% more than positive returns
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0487 | 24.30*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9309 | 338.63*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0253 | 6.90*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 9.5887 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
89 days
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