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V-Lab

Goldcrest Co Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026

1 Day

25.75%

decreased by 0.34%

1 Week

26.27%

increased by 0.18%

1 Month

28.15%

increased by 2.06%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 08:23 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Goldcrest Co Ltd MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 14, 1998 to Aug 10, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 89 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 52% more than positive returns

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

126
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0483
24.23***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9313
339.50***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0253
6.91***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

9.5780
0.00
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0000
0.00
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.992

Half-life:

89 days