V-Lab
Goldcrest Co Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026
1 Day
25.75%
1 Week
26.27%
1 Month
28.15%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 08:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 14, 1998 to Aug 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 89 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 52% more than positive returns
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0483 | 24.23*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9313 | 339.50*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0253 | 6.91*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 9.5780 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
89 days
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