V-Lab
Goldcrest Co Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026
1 Day
22.28%
decreased by 0.34%
1 Week
22.96%
increased by 0.34%
1 Month
24.39%
increased by 1.77%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 08:22 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 14, 1998 to Aug 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 7 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.4210 | 8.06*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1042 | 5.64*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7974 | 24.07*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | 0.0341 | 3.91*** |
| γ2 | -0.0461 | -3.44*** |
| γ3 | 0.0158 | 1.56 |
| γ4 | 0.0006 | 0.08 |
Persistence:
0.902
Half-life:
7 days
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