V-Lab
Goldcrest Co Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
20.32%
increased by 0.33%
1 Week
21.38%
increased by 1.39%
1 Month
23.57%
increased by 3.58%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 12:09 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 14, 1998 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 7 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.4185 | 8.04*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1045 | 5.66*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7972 | 24.09*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | 0.0339 | 3.88*** |
| γ2 | -0.0457 | -3.42*** |
| γ3 | 0.0155 | 1.53 |
| γ4 | 0.0009 | 0.12 |
Persistence:
0.902
Half-life:
7 days
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