V-Lab
Goldcrest Co Ltd Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
24.60%
1 Week
25.18%
1 Month
27.35%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 07:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 14, 1998 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): volatility shocks do not decay and the long-run variance is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 17% more than positive returns
AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0567 | 17.08*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1457 | 39.66*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8417 | 333.59*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0254 | 3.31*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
-
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