V-Lab
Goldcrest Co Ltd Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
23.29%
decreased by 0.85%
1 Week
24.00%
decreased by 0.14%
1 Month
25.52%
increased by 1.38%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 9, 2026 at 12:14 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 14, 1998 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 7 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.4196 | 8.00*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1046 | 5.67*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7975 | 24.16*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | 0.0338 | 3.82*** |
| γ2 | -0.0451 | -3.29*** |
| γ3 | 0.0138 | 1.19 |
| γ4 | 0.0059 | 0.29 |
Persistence:
0.902
Half-life:
7 days
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