V-Lab
Goldcrest Co Ltd GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026
1 Day
25.66%
decreased by 0.25%
1 Week
25.97%
increased by 0.06%
1 Month
27.14%
increased by 1.23%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 08:20 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 14, 1998 to Aug 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 165 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 24% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0429 | 12.77*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0395 | 16.53*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9515 | 704.82*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0096 | 2.07** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
165 days
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