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V-Lab

Goldcrest Co Ltd APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026

1 Day

26.53%

decreased by 0.55%

1 Week

26.90%

decreased by 0.18%

1 Month

28.31%

increased by 1.23%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 07:44 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of Goldcrest Co Ltd APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 14, 1998 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 135 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. The volatility power δ = 1.66 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 25% more than positive returns

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0394
11.86***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0504
23.01***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9496
624.31***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0676
2.75***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.6605
29.76***

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

135 days