V-Lab
Goldcrest Co Ltd APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
26.53%
1 Week
26.90%
1 Month
28.31%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 07:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 14, 1998 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 135 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. The volatility power δ = 1.66 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 25% more than positive returns
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0394 | 11.86*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0504 | 23.01*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9496 | 624.31*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0676 | 2.75*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.6605 | 29.76*** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
135 days
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