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V-Lab

Goldcrest Co Ltd AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026

1 Day

27.17%

decreased by 0.73%

1 Week

27.84%

decreased by 0.06%

1 Month

30.23%

increased by 2.33%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 07:44 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Goldcrest Co Ltd AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 14, 1998 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 73 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0834
12.26***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0772
42.46***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9134
561.05***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.4828
5.70***

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

73 days