V-Lab
Goldcrest Co Ltd EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
26.30%
decreased by 0.40%
1 Week
26.63%
decreased by 0.07%
1 Month
28.00%
increased by 1.30%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 9, 2026 at 12:12 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 14, 1998 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 120 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 26% more than positive returns
σ
EGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0185 | 15.82*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0883 | 22.67*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9942 | 2,356.04*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0101 | -2.34** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
120 days
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