Kunlun Tech Co Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
68.53%
1 Week
68.42%
1 Month
67.76%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:22 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 21, 2015 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 72 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 36 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0291 | 7.43*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9759 | 231.52*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0291 | -8.78*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 8.5044 | 0.08 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1579 | 0.07 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
72 days
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