V-Lab
Kunlun Tech Co Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
71.19%
1 Week
70.84%
1 Month
69.53%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 07:56 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 21, 2015 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 69 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0335 | 10.05*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9733 | 220.26*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0335 | -8.46*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.2005 | 0.84 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9803 | 55.19*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
69 days
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