Kunlun Tech Co Ltd APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
68.68%
1 Week
68.44%
1 Month
67.52%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:22 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 21, 2015 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 71 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. The volatility power δ = 1.65 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0760 | 9.61*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0133 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9716 | 389.26*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -1.0000 | 0.00 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.6518 | 15.94*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
71 days
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