Shanghai Kinlita Chemical Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
72.18%
increased by 6.73%
1 Week
71.31%
increased by 5.86%
1 Month
68.48%
increased by 3.03%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:20 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 31, 2011 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 19 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 19 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.75 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 13.5689 | 5.48*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0894 | 20.66*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9639 | 144.57*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.7532 | 9.76*** |
Persistence:
0.964
Half-life:
19 days
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