V-Lab
Shanghai Kinlita Chemical Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
56.33%
decreased by 4.23%
1 Week
56.48%
decreased by 4.08%
1 Month
56.95%
decreased by 3.61%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 07:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 31, 2011 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 19 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 19 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.77 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 13.5633 | 5.45*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0881 | 20.89*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9649 | 147.35*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.7674 | 9.75*** |
Persistence:
0.965
Half-life:
19 days
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