Shanghai Kinlita Chemical Co Ltd Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
76.52%
decreased by 0.78%
1 Week
76.70%
decreased by 0.60%
1 Month
77.39%
increased by 0.09%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:20 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 31, 2011 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 223 trading days (~0.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1258 | 12.03*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1298 | 19.17*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8648 | 145.00*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0045 | 0.39 |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
223 days
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