Shanghai Kinlita Chemical Co Ltd AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
54.66%
decreased by 2.09%
1 Week
55.06%
decreased by 1.69%
1 Month
56.08%
decreased by 0.67%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:20 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 31, 2011 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.81) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8692 | 17.97*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1205 | 27.36*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8075 | 124.36*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.8146 | 6.50*** |
Persistence:
0.928
Half-life:
9 days
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