NY Mercantile WTI Crude Oil GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
47.75%
increased by 0.96%
1 Week
47.56%
increased by 0.77%
1 Month
46.87%
increased by 0.08%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 18, 2026 at 04:11 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 23, 2000 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 97% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1060 | 22.27*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0620 | 13.27*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8922 | 293.95*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0603 | 6.92*** |
Persistence:
0.984
Half-life:
44 days
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