Skip to main content
V-Lab

NY Mercantile WTI Crude Oil GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026

1 Day

47.75%

increased by 0.96%

1 Week

47.56%

increased by 0.77%

1 Month

46.87%

increased by 0.08%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 18, 2026 at 04:11 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of NY Mercantile WTI Crude Oil GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 23, 2000 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 97% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.1060
22.27***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0620
13.27***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8922
293.95***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0603
6.92***

Persistence:

0.984

Half-life:

44 days