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V-Lab

IBEX 35 Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

17.65%

increased by 2.67%

1 Week

17.84%

increased by 2.86%

1 Month

18.47%

increased by 3.49%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 04:14 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of IBEX 35 Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 399% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 399% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow126
αARCH0.0313
3.03***
βGARCH0.8817
105.84***
γleverage0.1249
9.29***
λ₁tau intercept0.8707
0.06
λ₂forecast adj.0.0000
0.00
λ₃tau persistence0.5131
0.07

0.975

Persistence

28d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

126
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0313
3.03***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8817
105.84***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1249
9.29***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.8707
0.06
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0000
0.00
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.5131
0.07

Persistence:

0.975

Half-life:

28 days