V-Lab
IBEX 35 Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
17.65%
increased by 2.67%
1 Week
17.84%
increased by 2.86%
1 Month
18.47%
increased by 3.49%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 04:14 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 399% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 399% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 126 | |
| αARCH | 0.0313 | 3.03*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8817 | 105.84*** |
| γleverage | 0.1249 | 9.29*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.8707 | 0.06 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.5131 | 0.07 |
0.975
Persistence28d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0313 | 3.03*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8817 | 105.84*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1249 | 9.29*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.8707 | 0.06 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.5131 | 0.07 |
Persistence:
0.975
Half-life:
28 days
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