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V-Lab

Ishares Msci World Index ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

11.46%

decreased by 0.46%

1 Week

11.63%

decreased by 0.29%

1 Month

12.14%

increased by 0.22%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 01:53 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Ishares Msci World Index ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 24, 2009 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 16 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 16 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.74 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7175
14.49***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0992
23.86***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9583
282.60***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.7376
4.45***

Persistence:

0.958

Half-life:

16 days