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V-Lab

Ishares Msci World Index ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

11.48%

decreased by 0.47%

1 Week

11.63%

decreased by 0.32%

1 Month

12.03%

increased by 0.08%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 01:53 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Ishares Msci World Index ETF S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 24, 2009 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 13 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9767
12.20***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1131
7.90***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8336
46.80***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0006
0.93

Persistence:

0.947

Half-life:

13 days