V-Lab
Ishares Msci World Index ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
11.48%
decreased by 0.47%
1 Week
11.63%
decreased by 0.32%
1 Month
12.03%
increased by 0.08%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 01:53 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 24, 2009 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 13 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9767 | 12.20*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1131 | 7.90*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8336 | 46.80*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0006 | 0.93 |
Persistence:
0.947
Half-life:
13 days
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