V-Lab
Ishares Msci World Index ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
12.79%
decreased by 0.62%
1 Week
13.09%
decreased by 0.32%
1 Month
13.47%
increased by 0.06%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 01:53 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 24, 2009 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7938 | 88.80*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2091 | 28.59*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0148 | 2.39** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0347 | 2.49** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9437 | 42.65*** |
Persistence:
0.898
Half-life:
6 days
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