V-Lab
US Dollar to Turkish New Lira Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
2.20%
decreased by 0.04%
1 Week
2.25%
increased by 0.01%
1 Month
2.44%
increased by 0.20%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 08:54 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 148 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~148 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.1206 | 2.83*** |
| αARCH | 0.0660 | 4.21*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9293 | 52.36*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.1478 | -2.13** |
| γ2 | 0.2545 | 1.94* |
| γ3 | -0.1602 | -1.26 |
| γ4 | 0.1008 | 1.07 |
| γ5 | -0.1156 | -1.93* |
| γ6 | 0.1177 | 1.68* |
| γ7 | -0.0039 | -0.04 |
| γ8 | -0.1745 | -1.57 |
| γ9 | 0.2090 | 2.44** |
| γ10 | -0.0838 | -1.60 |
0.995
Persistence148d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.1206 | 2.83*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0660 | 4.21*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9293 | 52.36*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.1478 | -2.13** |
| γ2 | 0.2545 | 1.94* |
| γ3 | -0.1602 | -1.26 |
| γ4 | 0.1008 | 1.07 |
| γ5 | -0.1156 | -1.93* |
| γ6 | 0.1177 | 1.68* |
| γ7 | -0.0039 | -0.04 |
| γ8 | -0.1745 | -1.57 |
| γ9 | 0.2090 | 2.44** |
| γ10 | -0.0838 | -1.60 |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
148 days
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