US Dollar to Turkish New Lira Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026
1 Day
2.27%
decreased by 0.04%
1 Week
2.32%
increased by 0.01%
1 Month
2.50%
increased by 0.19%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 08:10 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 135 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~135 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.0304 | 2.87*** |
| αARCH | 0.0653 | 4.21*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9296 | 52.43*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.1489 | -2.18** |
| γ2 | 0.2585 | 1.99** |
| γ3 | -0.1663 | -1.32 |
| γ4 | 0.1049 | 1.13 |
| γ5 | -0.1155 | -1.95* |
| γ6 | 0.1169 | 1.70* |
| γ7 | -0.0053 | -0.05 |
| γ8 | -0.1716 | -1.55 |
| γ9 | 0.2074 | 2.43** |
| γ10 | -0.0842 | -1.65* |
0.995
Persistence135d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.0304 | 2.87*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0653 | 4.21*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9296 | 52.43*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.1489 | -2.18** |
| γ2 | 0.2585 | 1.99** |
| γ3 | -0.1663 | -1.32 |
| γ4 | 0.1049 | 1.13 |
| γ5 | -0.1155 | -1.95* |
| γ6 | 0.1169 | 1.70* |
| γ7 | -0.0053 | -0.05 |
| γ8 | -0.1716 | -1.55 |
| γ9 | 0.2074 | 2.43** |
| γ10 | -0.0842 | -1.65* |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
135 days
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