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US Dollar to Turkish New Lira Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026

1 Day

2.20%

decreased by 0.04%

1 Week

2.25%

increased by 0.01%

1 Month

2.44%

increased by 0.20%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 08:54 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/01/2024

to

10/01/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of US Dollar to Turkish New Lira S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 148 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~148 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.1206
2.83***
αARCH0.0660
4.21***
βGARCH0.9293
52.36***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-0.1478
-2.13**
γ20.2545
1.94*
γ3-0.1602
-1.26
γ40.1008
1.07
γ5-0.1156
-1.93*
γ60.1177
1.68*
γ7-0.0039
-0.04
γ8-0.1745
-1.57
γ90.2090
2.44**
γ10-0.0838
-1.60

0.995

Persistence

148d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.1206
2.83***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0660
4.21***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9293
52.36***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-0.1478
-2.13**
γ20.2545
1.94*
γ3-0.1602
-1.26
γ40.1008
1.07
γ5-0.1156
-1.93*
γ60.1177
1.68*
γ7-0.0039
-0.04
γ8-0.1745
-1.57
γ90.2090
2.44**
γ10-0.0838
-1.60

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

148 days