V-Lab
US Dollar to Turkish New Lira Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
2.03%
increased by 0.18%
1 Week
2.08%
increased by 0.23%
1 Month
2.28%
increased by 0.43%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 08:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 150 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~150 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.1266 | 2.82*** |
| αARCH | 0.0658 | 4.22*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9295 | 52.86*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.1480 | -2.11** |
| γ2 | 0.2544 | 1.93* |
| γ3 | -0.1602 | -1.26 |
| γ4 | 0.1025 | 1.09 |
| γ5 | -0.1179 | -1.94* |
| γ6 | 0.1189 | 1.64 |
| γ7 | -0.0040 | -0.04 |
| γ8 | -0.1731 | -1.52 |
| γ9 | 0.2040 | 2.35** |
| γ10 | -0.0784 | -1.47 |
0.995
Persistence150d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.1266 | 2.82*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0658 | 4.22*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9295 | 52.86*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.1480 | -2.11** |
| γ2 | 0.2544 | 1.93* |
| γ3 | -0.1602 | -1.26 |
| γ4 | 0.1025 | 1.09 |
| γ5 | -0.1179 | -1.94* |
| γ6 | 0.1189 | 1.64 |
| γ7 | -0.0040 | -0.04 |
| γ8 | -0.1731 | -1.52 |
| γ9 | 0.2040 | 2.35** |
| γ10 | -0.0784 | -1.47 |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
150 days
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