V-Lab
US Dollar to Turkish New Lira GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026
1 Day
2.10%
1 Week
2.16%
1 Month
2.37%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 07:45 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 28, 2001 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 87% more than negative returns
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0005 | 4.30*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0842 | 25.20*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9354 | 316.43*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0392 | -6.23*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
Other GJR-GARCH Analyses on Currencies