US Dollar to Turkish New Lira GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026
1 Day
2.25%
1 Week
2.30%
1 Month
2.52%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 12, 2026 at 02:55 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 28, 2001 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): volatility shocks do not decay and the long-run variance is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.
Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 88% more than negative returns
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0005 | 4.55*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0849 | 24.49*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9350 | 310.31*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0397 | -6.13*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
-
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