US Dollar to Turkish New Lira EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
2.42%
decreased by 0.07%
1 Week
2.54%
increased by 0.05%
1 Month
3.09%
increased by 0.60%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 13, 2026 at 07:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 28, 2001 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 56% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
σ
EGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0097 | 12.81*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1784 | 23.36*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9898 | 1,098.51*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0390 | 10.65*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
67 days
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