Skip to main content
V-Lab

US Dollar to Turkish New Lira EGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026

1 Day

2.42%

decreased by 0.07%

1 Week

2.54%

increased by 0.05%

1 Month

3.09%

increased by 0.60%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 13, 2026 at 07:10 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of US Dollar to Turkish New Lira EGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 28, 2001 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 56% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

EGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0097
12.81***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1784
23.36***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9898
1,098.51***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0390
10.65***

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

67 days