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US Dollar to Turkish New Lira GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026

1 Day

3.28%

decreased by 0.20%

1 Week

3.39%

decreased by 0.09%

1 Month

3.81%

increased by 0.33%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 12, 2026 at 03:10 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of US Dollar to Turkish New Lira GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 28, 2001 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693 trading days (~2.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.32 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.5410
7.60***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0609
129.60***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9990
7,625.95***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.3212
1,255.37***

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

693 days