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US Dollar to Turkish New Lira Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

1.57%

increased by 0.26%

1 Week

1.57%

increased by 0.26%

1 Month

1.60%

increased by 0.29%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 08:46 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of US Dollar to Turkish New Lira SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 118 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~118 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.9419
3.24***
αARCH0.0683
4.49***
βGARCH0.9259
53.05***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-0.1563
-2.34**
γ20.2748
2.17**
γ3-0.1861
-1.53
γ40.1256
1.42
γ5-0.1291
-2.21**
γ60.1069
1.41
γ70.0432
0.37
γ8-0.2705
-2.05**
γ90.3923
2.96***
γ10-0.4373
-2.43**

0.994

Persistence

118d

Half-life
τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.9419
3.24***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0683
4.49***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9259
53.05***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-0.1563
-2.34**
γ20.2748
2.17**
γ3-0.1861
-1.53
γ40.1256
1.42
γ5-0.1291
-2.21**
γ60.1069
1.41
γ70.0432
0.37
γ8-0.2705
-2.05**
γ90.3923
2.96***
γ10-0.4373
-2.43**

Persistence:

0.994

Half-life:

118 days