V-Lab
US Dollar to Turkish New Lira Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
1.57%
increased by 0.26%
1 Week
1.57%
increased by 0.26%
1 Month
1.60%
increased by 0.29%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 08:46 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 118 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~118 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.9419 | 3.24*** |
| αARCH | 0.0683 | 4.49*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9259 | 53.05*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.1563 | -2.34** |
| γ2 | 0.2748 | 2.17** |
| γ3 | -0.1861 | -1.53 |
| γ4 | 0.1256 | 1.42 |
| γ5 | -0.1291 | -2.21** |
| γ6 | 0.1069 | 1.41 |
| γ7 | 0.0432 | 0.37 |
| γ8 | -0.2705 | -2.05** |
| γ9 | 0.3923 | 2.96*** |
| γ10 | -0.4373 | -2.43** |
0.994
Persistence118d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.9419 | 3.24*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0683 | 4.49*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9259 | 53.05*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.1563 | -2.34** |
| γ2 | 0.2748 | 2.17** |
| γ3 | -0.1861 | -1.53 |
| γ4 | 0.1256 | 1.42 |
| γ5 | -0.1291 | -2.21** |
| γ6 | 0.1069 | 1.41 |
| γ7 | 0.0432 | 0.37 |
| γ8 | -0.2705 | -2.05** |
| γ9 | 0.3923 | 2.96*** |
| γ10 | -0.4373 | -2.43** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
118 days
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