V-Lab
US Dollar to Malaysian Ringgit Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
3.83%
increased by 0.15%
1 Week
4.04%
increased by 0.36%
1 Month
4.76%
increased by 1.08%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 08:46 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 71 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.990, shock half-life ~71 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.6452 | 2.12** |
| αARCH | 0.1669 | 10.61*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8235 | 62.44*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | -0.0923 | -3.18*** |
| γ2 | 0.1429 | 3.36*** |
| γ3 | -0.0204 | -0.72 |
| γ4 | -0.0794 | -2.94*** |
| γ5 | 0.0520 | 2.21** |
| γ6 | 0.0136 | 0.77 |
| γ7 | -0.0247 | -2.27** |
0.990
Persistence71d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6452 | 2.12** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1669 | 10.61*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8235 | 62.44*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | -0.0923 | -3.18*** |
| γ2 | 0.1429 | 3.36*** |
| γ3 | -0.0204 | -0.72 |
| γ4 | -0.0794 | -2.94*** |
| γ5 | 0.0520 | 2.21** |
| γ6 | 0.0136 | 0.77 |
| γ7 | -0.0247 | -2.27** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
71 days
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