V-Lab
US Dollar to Malaysian Ringgit Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
3.89%
increased by 0.15%
1 Week
4.12%
increased by 0.38%
1 Month
4.88%
increased by 1.14%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 08:46 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 78 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~78 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.6390 | 1.98** |
| αARCH | 0.1677 | 10.65*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8234 | 62.70*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | -0.0967 | -3.31*** |
| γ2 | 0.1493 | 3.50*** |
| γ3 | -0.0231 | -0.81 |
| γ4 | -0.0787 | -2.88*** |
| γ5 | 0.0527 | 2.16** |
| γ6 | 0.0118 | 0.58 |
| γ7 | -0.0204 | -0.87 |
0.991
Persistence78d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6390 | 1.98** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1677 | 10.65*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8234 | 62.70*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | -0.0967 | -3.31*** |
| γ2 | 0.1493 | 3.50*** |
| γ3 | -0.0231 | -0.81 |
| γ4 | -0.0787 | -2.88*** |
| γ5 | 0.0527 | 2.16** |
| γ6 | 0.0118 | 0.58 |
| γ7 | -0.0204 | -0.87 |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
78 days
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