V-Lab
US Dollar to Malaysian Ringgit GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
3.68%
decreased by 0.19%
1 Week
3.69%
decreased by 0.18%
1 Month
3.71%
decreased by 0.16%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 02:56 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0001 | 10.71*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0901 | 20.83*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9056 | 494.86*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0086 | 0.91 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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