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US Dollar to British Pound Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, November 13th, 2026

1 Day

5.55%

increased by 0.19%

1 Week

5.57%

increased by 0.21%

1 Month

5.66%

increased by 0.30%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, November 12, 2026 at 07:23 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/12/2024

to

11/12/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of US Dollar to British Pound S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 2000 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 107 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~107 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.9376
9.44***
αARCH0.0291
5.47***
βGARCH0.9644
167.06***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0001
-0.50

0.994

Persistence

107d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9376
9.44***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0291
5.47***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9644
167.06***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0001
-0.50

Persistence:

0.994

Half-life:

107 days