V-Lab
US Dollar to British Pound Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
4.79%
decreased by 0.03%
1 Week
4.83%
increased by 0.01%
1 Month
4.98%
increased by 0.16%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 08:53 PM UTC
Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 2000 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 102 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~102 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9249 | 9.54*** |
| αARCH | 0.0292 | 5.41*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9641 | 164.09*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0001 | -0.63 |
0.993
Persistence102d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9249 | 9.54*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0292 | 5.41*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9641 | 164.09*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0001 | -0.63 |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
102 days
Other US Dollar to British Pound Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on Currencies