V-Lab
US Dollar to British Pound Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
4.61%
increased by 0.06%
1 Week
4.66%
increased by 0.11%
1 Month
4.83%
increased by 0.28%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 08:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 2000 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 103 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~103 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9267 | 9.49*** |
| αARCH | 0.0292 | 5.42*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9640 | 164.20*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0001 | -0.61 |
0.993
Persistence103d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9267 | 9.49*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0292 | 5.42*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9640 | 164.20*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0001 | -0.61 |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
103 days
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