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US Dollar to British Pound Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026

1 Day

4.79%

decreased by 0.03%

1 Week

4.83%

increased by 0.01%

1 Month

4.98%

increased by 0.16%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 08:53 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/01/2024

to

10/01/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of US Dollar to British Pound S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 2000 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 102 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~102 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.9249
9.54***
αARCH0.0292
5.41***
βGARCH0.9641
164.09***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0001
-0.63

0.993

Persistence

102d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9249
9.54***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0292
5.41***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9641
164.09***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0001
-0.63

Persistence:

0.993

Half-life:

102 days