V-Lab
US Dollar to British Pound Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
4.52%
increased by 0.07%
1 Week
4.56%
increased by 0.11%
1 Month
4.72%
increased by 0.27%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 08:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 2000 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 101 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~101 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.8992 | 8.10*** |
| αARCH | 0.0293 | 5.41*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9639 | 163.54*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0003 | -0.63 |
0.993
Persistence101d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8992 | 8.10*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0293 | 5.41*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9639 | 163.54*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0003 | -0.63 |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
101 days
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