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US Dollar to British Pound Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

4.52%

increased by 0.07%

1 Week

4.56%

increased by 0.11%

1 Month

4.72%

increased by 0.27%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 08:44 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of US Dollar to British Pound SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 2000 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 101 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~101 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.8992
8.10***
αARCH0.0293
5.41***
βGARCH0.9639
163.54***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0003
-0.63

0.993

Persistence

101d

Half-life
τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8992
8.10***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0293
5.41***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9639
163.54***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0003
-0.63

Persistence:

0.993

Half-life:

101 days