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US Dollar to Czech Koruna Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

4.98%

decreased by 0.05%

1 Week

5.03%

decreased by 0.00%

1 Month

5.20%

increased by 0.17%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 08:42 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of US Dollar to Czech Koruna S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 19, 1993 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 143 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~143 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.1845
8.86***
αARCH0.0349
5.91***
βGARCH0.9603
144.01***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0001
1.31

0.995

Persistence

143d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.1845
8.86***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0349
5.91***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9603
144.01***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0001
1.31

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

143 days