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V-Lab

US Dollar to Czech Koruna Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

4.70%

decreased by 0.05%

1 Week

4.72%

decreased by 0.03%

1 Month

4.83%

increased by 0.08%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 08:43 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of US Dollar to Czech Koruna SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 19, 1993 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 142 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~142 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.1013
7.83***
αARCH0.0348
5.99***
βGARCH0.9603
146.89***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0005
-0.85

0.995

Persistence

142d

Half-life
τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.1013
7.83***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0348
5.99***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9603
146.89***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0005
-0.85

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

142 days