T Rowe Price Long Municipal Income ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026
1 Day
3.30%
decreased by 0.09%
1 Week
3.43%
increased by 0.04%
1 Month
3.50%
increased by 0.11%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 09:30 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 20, 2025 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7592 | 3.07*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0930 | 0.90 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4905 | 1.01 |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | 51.3309 | 1.79* |
| γ2 | -94.2696 | -2.09** |
| γ3 | 58.0194 | 2.21** |
Persistence:
0.584
Half-life:
1 days
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