V-Lab
T Rowe Price Long Municipal Income ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
5.61%
decreased by 0.13%
1 Week
4.43%
decreased by 1.31%
1 Month
3.78%
decreased by 1.96%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 02:22 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 20, 2025 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7267 | 3.02*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1745 | 1.45 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3048 | 0.75 |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | 38.7352 | 1.56 |
| γ2 | -73.9731 | -1.88* |
| γ3 | 47.5353 | 2.01** |
Persistence:
0.479
Half-life:
1 days
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