T Rowe Price Long Municipal Income ETF Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026
1 Day
2.86%
decreased by 0.10%
1 Week
2.96%
increased by 0.00%
1 Month
3.02%
increased by 0.06%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 09:30 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 20, 2025 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4907 | 3.23*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1083 | 0.87 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4981 | 1.04 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -10.2279 | -1.50 |
Persistence:
0.606
Half-life:
1 days
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