Skip to main content
V-Lab

T Rowe Price Long Municipal Income ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026

1 Day

3.51%

decreased by 0.22%

1 Week

3.71%

decreased by 0.02%

1 Month

3.95%

increased by 0.22%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 09:30 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of T Rowe Price Long Municipal Income ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 20, 2025 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.73 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0661
6.24***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1254
3.69***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8034
25.17***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.7349
0.55

Persistence:

0.803

Half-life:

3 days