T Rowe Price Long Municipal Income ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026
1 Day
3.51%
decreased by 0.22%
1 Week
3.71%
decreased by 0.02%
1 Month
3.95%
increased by 0.22%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 09:30 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 20, 2025 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.73 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0661 | 6.24*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1254 | 3.69*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8034 | 25.17*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.7349 | 0.55 |
Persistence:
0.803
Half-life:
3 days
Other T Rowe Price Long Municipal Income ETF Analyses
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on ETFs