T Rowe Price Long Municipal Income ETF Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026
1 Day
6.44%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
6.44%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Month
6.45%
increased by 0.01%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 09:30 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 21, 2025 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 23 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 23 days. The volatility power δ = 1.49 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
μ
APMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0076 | 1.69* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9708 | 71.04*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.9111 | 0.00 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.4928 | 5.58*** |
Persistence:
0.971
Half-life:
23 days
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