V-Lab
S&P Composite 1500 Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
13.57%
decreased by 0.63%
1 Week
13.92%
decreased by 0.28%
1 Month
15.01%
increased by 0.81%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 12:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 31, 1994 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 23 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.4904 | 4.99*** |
| αARCH | 0.1118 | 9.89*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8582 | 67.89*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | -0.0693 | -4.21*** |
| γ2 | 0.0967 | 4.24*** |
| γ3 | -0.0490 | -3.45*** |
| γ4 | 0.0434 | 2.88*** |
| γ5 | -0.0312 | -2.74*** |
0.970
Persistence23d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4904 | 4.99*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1118 | 9.89*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8582 | 67.89*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | -0.0693 | -4.21*** |
| γ2 | 0.0967 | 4.24*** |
| γ3 | -0.0490 | -3.45*** |
| γ4 | 0.0434 | 2.88*** |
| γ5 | -0.0312 | -2.74*** |
Persistence:
0.970
Half-life:
23 days
Other S&P Composite 1500 Index Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on Equity Indices