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V-Lab

S&P Composite 1500 Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

13.57%

decreased by 0.63%

1 Week

13.92%

decreased by 0.28%

1 Month

15.01%

increased by 0.81%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 12:03 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P Composite 1500 Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 31, 1994 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 23 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.4904
4.99***
αARCH0.1118
9.89***
βGARCH0.8582
67.89***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=5
γ1-0.0693
-4.21***
γ20.0967
4.24***
γ3-0.0490
-3.45***
γ40.0434
2.88***
γ5-0.0312
-2.74***

0.970

Persistence

23d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.4904
4.99***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1118
9.89***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8582
67.89***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=5
γ1-0.0693
-4.21***
γ20.0967
4.24***
γ3-0.0490
-3.45***
γ40.0434
2.88***
γ5-0.0312
-2.74***

Persistence:

0.970

Half-life:

23 days