V-Lab
S&P GSCI Lead Spot Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
12.83%
decreased by 0.07%
1 Week
12.94%
increased by 0.04%
1 Month
13.36%
increased by 0.46%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:53 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 6, 1995 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 302 trading days (~1.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~302 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0070 | 2.89*** |
| αARCH | 0.0320 | 3.72*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9670 | 231.94*** |
| γleverage | -0.0024 | -0.19 |
0.998
Persistence302d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0070 | 2.89*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0320 | 3.72*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9670 | 231.94*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0024 | -0.19 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
302 days
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