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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Lead Spot Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

12.83%

decreased by 0.07%

1 Week

12.94%

increased by 0.04%

1 Month

13.36%

increased by 0.46%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:53 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Lead Spot Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 6, 1995 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 302 trading days (~1.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~302 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0070
2.89***
αARCH0.0320
3.72***
βGARCH0.9670
231.94***
γleverage-0.0024
-0.19

0.998

Persistence

302d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0070
2.89***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0320
3.72***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9670
231.94***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0024
-0.19

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

302 days