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S&P GSCI Biofuel Spot Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026

1 Day

18.63%

increased by 1.19%

1 Week

18.63%

increased by 1.19%

1 Month

18.63%

increased by 1.19%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 12:18 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/02/2024

to

10/02/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Biofuel Spot Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 16, 1995 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 66 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 66 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 10.06 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 66-day half-lifev = 10.06 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.3757
3.57***
αARCH0.0448
7.94***
βGARCH0.9896
291.32***
νDF10.0612
0.92

0.990

Persistence

66d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.3757
3.57***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0448
7.94***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9896
291.32***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

10.0612
0.92

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

66 days