V-Lab
Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
13.77%
increased by 1.14%
1 Week
14.30%
increased by 1.67%
1 Month
16.02%
increased by 3.39%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 09:06 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1991 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 29 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.4866 | 3.45*** |
| αARCH | 0.1111 | 8.08*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8656 | 65.48*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | -0.1104 | -5.76*** |
| γ2 | 0.1696 | 6.13*** |
| γ3 | -0.1006 | -6.19*** |
| γ4 | 0.0670 | 4.50*** |
| γ5 | -0.0318 | -2.51** |
0.977
Persistence29d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4866 | 3.45*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1111 | 8.08*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8656 | 65.48*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | -0.1104 | -5.76*** |
| γ2 | 0.1696 | 6.13*** |
| γ3 | -0.1006 | -6.19*** |
| γ4 | 0.0670 | 4.50*** |
| γ5 | -0.0318 | -2.51** |
Persistence:
0.977
Half-life:
29 days
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