Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026
1 Day
15.59%
increased by 1.63%
1 Week
15.99%
increased by 2.03%
1 Month
17.29%
increased by 3.33%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 08:03 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1991 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 30 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.4888 | 3.46*** |
| αARCH | 0.1109 | 8.08*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8660 | 65.69*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | -0.1095 | -5.74*** |
| γ2 | 0.1684 | 6.11*** |
| γ3 | -0.0999 | -6.18*** |
| γ4 | 0.0667 | 4.51*** |
| γ5 | -0.0318 | -2.54** |
0.977
Persistence30d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4888 | 3.46*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1109 | 8.08*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8660 | 65.69*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | -0.1095 | -5.74*** |
| γ2 | 0.1684 | 6.11*** |
| γ3 | -0.0999 | -6.18*** |
| γ4 | 0.0667 | 4.51*** |
| γ5 | -0.0318 | -2.54** |
Persistence:
0.977
Half-life:
30 days
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