V-Lab
Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
13.94%
increased by 1.12%
1 Week
14.51%
increased by 1.69%
1 Month
16.31%
increased by 3.49%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 09:08 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1991 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 30 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.4863 | 3.44*** |
| αARCH | 0.1113 | 8.17*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8656 | 65.37*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | -0.1110 | -5.77*** |
| γ2 | 0.1706 | 6.13*** |
| γ3 | -0.1009 | -6.22*** |
| γ4 | 0.0663 | 4.80*** |
| γ5 | -0.0289 | -1.46 |
0.977
Persistence30d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4863 | 3.44*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1113 | 8.17*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8656 | 65.37*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | -0.1110 | -5.77*** |
| γ2 | 0.1706 | 6.13*** |
| γ3 | -0.1009 | -6.22*** |
| γ4 | 0.0663 | 4.80*** |
| γ5 | -0.0289 | -1.46 |
Persistence:
0.977
Half-life:
30 days
Other Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index Analyses
Other Spline-GARCH Analyses on Equity Indices